Ocean Waves Break(through) in Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks have improved over decades. Predictions of TC intensity lag behind. Strongest TCs tend to be underpredicted. We show that interactive account of wind waves reduces errors of numerical reforecasts by more than 90% (!). More lives will be saved, particularly in a warmer climate, if oceanographers and meteorologists work hand in hand on TC forecasting – improving observations, data assimilation, modelling, and interpretation of model output.